How long will it take for the freight to return to normal levels? 18 to 30 months
It is reported that some organizations have calculated and analyzed that after experiencing the supply chain bottleneck during this period and record high freight rates, it may take 18 to 30 months for the freight to return to normal levels.
According to Sea-Intelligence's calculations, based on the average weekly decline percentage in 5 decline cycles, the weekly decline of the CCFI index is between 0.4% and 0.9%, and the average weekly decline is 0.6%.
However, there is another question: what is the normal shipping level? The CCFI base period index is set at 1000 points, and the CCFI index of 1000 represents the normal freight rate. Sea Intelligence pointed out: "The current freight index is 69% higher than the normal freight index."
During the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, freight rates fell at the fastest rate of 0.9% per week. If this rate of decline is applied to current freight rates, it will take 18 months to return to normal. If the current rate of decline in freight rates is comparable to the average weekly rate of decline (0.6%) in the five decline cycles, it will take 26 months for freight rates to return to normal.
In addition, Sea Intelligence also calculated the average weekly rate of increase in the five freight rate increase cycles, and the result was 1.1%, which means that the coefficient between the increase and decrease is 1.8, that is, the weekly increase in freight tends to be higher than the decrease. 80%. Since the current freight level has been rising continuously for 17 months, it will take 30 months for the freight to return to the normal level.
Previously, some participants in the container shipping market believed that the current tight market and high freight rates may continue until 2023, or even 2024, because most new ships will begin to be delivered by then, and more capacity will be injected into the market.
